EXCHANGE RATE, INFLATION AND ANALYSIS OF ECONOMETRIC IMPACT ON TURKEY'S FOREIGN TRADE OF INTEREST RATE
DÖVİZ KURU, ENFLASYON VE FAİZ ORANLARININ TÜRKİYE’NİN DIŞ TİCARETİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZİ

Author : Hüseyin USLU
Number of pages : 473-497

Abstract

In the study, 2005: 6-2007: 12-month belonging to using data on 'exchange rate, Turkey's foreign trade to the impact of inflation and interest rates,' 'was to be examined. The variables used in the study were analyzed using wholesale price index (TEFE), real effective exchange rate (REDK), interest rate on government debt securities (INTEREST), foreign trade (import-export) data. The data belonging to the variables used in the econometric analysis are subjected to stationarity test with extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests and it is aimed to determine the relationship between the Granger causality test and the dynamic relations between the effect-response functions and the series. According to the findings obtained during non-working, variables are affected both by their own values and by shocks that occur in other variables. According to Granger analysis results, bidirectionality between import and export variables, real exchange rate-bi-directional relationship between export variables, and bidirectional causality relationship between inflation-import variables, one way from exchange rate to import, one way from exchange rate to inflation, one-way causality relationship from the one-way to the interest rate variable and from the exchange rate to the interest rate variable was determined.

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate, Inflation, Government Debt Securities, Import and Export, Foreign Trade in Turke

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