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Abstract


MACRO ECONOMİC DETERMİNANTS OF POLITICAL STABILITY IN CENTRAL ASIAN TURKIC REPUBLICS
Political stability is defined as an important factor affecting the performance of a country's economy. On the basis of the theoretical relationship between political stability and macroeconomic variables, growing investment and national income growth in line with political stability stand. The introduction of macroeconomic determinants of political stability in Central Asian Turkic republics, which move from central planning to free market economics, will provide significant advantages in terms of policy makers. For this purpose, in this study, the macroeconomic determinants of political stability in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan between 2001 and 2016 were examined by panel data econometric methods. Empirical analysis results show that political stability concept has an effect on unemployment, government expenditures and GDP per capita while macro economic indicators have a limited effect on political stability in panel co-integration and vector error correction methods which take countries into account as a whole. The causality analysis, which allows to study on country basis, determines that per capita GDP, trade-openness and unemployment rate in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan economies had an effect on political stability. As a result, it has been revealed that by the opening of the Turkic republics to the international market, the effect of trade openness, unemployment and income on the political stability of the countries have increased.

Keywords
Central Asian Turkic Republics, Political stability, Panel data analysis


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