THE SOLE DETERMINACY OF EXPECTED OUTPUT RATE ON STOCK RETURNS RATE: CAN FAMA’S MODEL BE A PACE SETTER TO INCREASE CREDIBILITY OF SECURITIES MARKET?
HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİ ORANLARINDA BEKLENEN ÇIKTI ORANININ TEK BELİRLEYİCİLİĞİ: FAMA’NIN MODELİ HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASINA OLAN GÜVENİ ARTTIRABİLİR Mİ?

Author : Necip Özgür İYİLİKCİ
Number of pages : 464-473

Abstract

The Stock Market failure can prevent new and present investors from taking active participatory role in the stock market. Because it can deteriorate the credibility of well functioning markets. To explain the large price fluctuations, behavioural economists take the subject from different view. The spiritus animals referring to the irrationality of investors and markets. Fama’s Stock Return Rate econometric model is based on a Fisherian quantity theory of Money with rational expectations. His findings show that stock return rate is explained by one of the important market fundamentals, that is, expected output rate and this may provide the reliable environment for investments. In this paper, Fama’s econometric model is retested again and similar results are reached providing more reliable investment environment

Keywords

Efficient Market Theory, Random Walk hypothesis, Rational Expectations, Fisherian quantity theory of

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