POLITICAL ASPECT OF ENDOGENOUS MONEY SUPPLY: IMPLEMENTATION OF TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY
ENDOJEN PARA ARZININ POLİTİK YÖNÜ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİNİN UYGULANMASI

Author : Ahmet Emrah TAYYAR
Number of pages : 89-107

Abstract

According to the theory of endogenous money supply, which is one of the working areas of Post Keynesian school, money supply is determined based on credit money. Especially the increasing money needs of households, firms and governments in the election period results in an increase in the amount of money in the market due to political reasons. In addition, manipulation of the monetary policy to regain power during election periods is examined with the help of political monetary fluctuations theory. During the 2000-2016 single-party government in Turkey has been determined that the political monetary fluctuations (Tayyar, 2017a). The existence of political monetary fluctuations in the mentioned period necessitates questioning of these fluctuations in terms of the endogeneity of money. For this reason, the causality relationship between M0, M1, M2, M3 money supply and domestic credit variables for the period 2003: 01-2016: 05 in the study was examined by Toda-Yamamoto (1995) analysis. According to this, causality relation has been determined from domestic credits to money supply of M0, M1, M2 and M3. As a result, it is advocated that occur through endogenous money supply fluctuation of monetary policy during the period 2000-2016 in Turkey.

Keywords

Political monetary cycles theory, Endogenous Money Supply, Central Bank, Casuality Analysis, Toda-Ya

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