ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE INDEX WITH THE SELECTED DATA: CASE OF TURKEY
DÖVİZ PİYASASI BASKISI ÖLÇÜTÜNÜN SEÇİLMİŞ VERİLER İLE ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Author : Fatma Nur YORGANCILAR -- Haldun SOYDAL
Number of pages : 409-423

Abstract

The foreign currency reserves and exchange rates of countries and variations in these indicators are the predictor variables based on about the vulnerability of economic system against crises. In the points such as determination of monetary and exchange rate policy and selection of policy instruments, the authority making policy should take into consideration these variables of interest as well as all other factors directly and indirectly affecting these variables as a whole. When dealt with from this aspect, exchange market press index presents the ability to holistically discuss exchange rate and reserve mobility. In this study, in such a way that it will also cover the effects of the global crisis the county face, in the range of the years 2006-2015, exchange market pressure is discussed from the aspect of Turkish economy. In the study, as a method, for the criteria of different exchange market pressure taking place in the literature, multi- regression analysis is applied. The data, compiled from the official websites of the various agencies and used in the analysis for the years of interest, are the indicators commonly used in the literature toward measuring exchange market pressure such as Short Term Debt/Gross Domestic Product, Credit Volume/ Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Trade Volume/ Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Trade Balance/ Gross Domestic Product, consumer price index, VIX Index, yield curve index, commodity index, etc. In the direction of the findings obtained, in terms of Turkish economy, the variables having the significant relationship with exchange market pressure indices are introduced.

Keywords

Exchange Market Pressure, Multi-regression Analysis

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